A stormy transition to spring

Rounds of storms behind now and Friday.
Posted at 1:42 PM, Mar 18, 2020

We are in the midst of a multi-day stretch of on-again, off-again showers and storms. There have already been a few showers, even some periods of rain across central and eastern Kentucky today. Things are just getting started.

A warm front is draped across the region today. Have you noticed the surge temperatures through the early afternoon? There are chances for strong and severe storms inside the warm sector. Out west and the majority of central Kentucky is included in a *marginal* risk for severe storms today by the Storm Prediction Center. Although southern counties look to have the best chances. Inside the warm sector there will be a good deal of shear for storms to work with, but not a lot of instability (fuel.) The weak instability is due in part to the considerable cloudiness that we have seen so far today and also the widespread showers that will move in ahead of any storms.

The timing of these storms will be between 3 PM and 11 PM. As the marginal risk suggests any strong or severe storm will be isolated. But these stronger storms will be capable of producing wind damage along with isolated spin-ups.

The aforementioned warm front will stall tomorrow. This will lead to a prolonged heavy rain and gusty wind potential that will last through mid-day Friday. (It will be even warmer as well with highs in the low and mid 70s.) Between now and then one to three inches of rain will be possible. Additional rounds of showers and storms late Thursday through Friday may lead to localized flash flooding.