We have been keeping an eye on a wave of low pressure that is now sitting in the Gulf of Mexico. This wave sat near us over the course of last weekend, when we were experiencing higher storm chances. Now it churns in the Gulf of Mexico with little in the way of organized thunderstorms.
As of now, the wave (named 92-L) has sustained wind speeds of 25 mph and gusts to 35. The minimum centralized pressure is running at 1011 mb and is moving SSW at 9 mph.
Now that the storm is over warmer water and in a low-shear environment, it has the chance to strengthen and organize. The NHC is giving the system a 70% chance of tropical development in the next 48 hours and an 80% chance in the next five days.
Latest model runs are showing a westward trend with the storm and a landfall somewhere near East Texas or Louisiana. Of course, landfall and the strength of storm at landfall is still being worked out at this time.
