BOWLING GREEN, Ky. (LEX 18) – Western Kentucky University’s Social Science Department has released the results of their "Politics in Kentucky."
SURVEY METHODOLOGY
KENTUCKY LEGISLATURE
MITCH MCCONNELL
Among state politicians we asked about Rand Paul has the highest approval rating at 45%. 42% of Kentuckians disapprove, and 13% are undecided. He has an approval rating of 60% among Republicans, 23% among Democrats, and 55% among Independents. Paul has a 60% approval rating among conservatives, 43% approval among moderates, and 24% approval among liberals.
BIGGEST PROBLEM
Respondents were asked to name the biggest problem currently facing Kentucky. The answer most commonly given was the pension crisis (19%), followed by the opiod crisis (15%) and education (10%). Of course, it is possible that at least some of those mentioning education would have been referring to the pension situation. No other problem mentioned managed to reach double digits in terms of frequency.
PENSION CRISIS
We asked a variety of questions regarding the pension crisis facing Kentucky. First, we asked respondents if they favored Governor Bevin’s position, the teacher’s position, or if they were neutral between the two. 53% expressed support for the teachers, 16% expressed support for the Governor, and 20% indicated neutrality. From a partisan standpoint, support for the Governor’s position was highest among Republicans (28%), while support for the teacher’s position exceeded 50% among Republicans, Democrats, and Independents. Ideologically, support for the Governor’s position is highest among conservatives (30%), while the greatest support for teachers comes from liberals (75%).
Compounding problems for the Governor, 62% disapproved of the manner in which he has handled the pension issue, while only 29% approve of his handling of it. His highest level of approval came from conservatives (43%) and Republicans (41%), while the greatest disapproval came from liberals and Democrats (78% each).
We also asked respondents about their level of support for tax increases, marijuana legalization, and casino gambling as mechanism by which to address the pension shortfall. Casino gambling was the most popular option (56%). This option was supported by 58% of Republican, 57% of Democrats, and 56% of Independents. Marijuana legalization (46%) was the second most popular option. Marijuana legalization was supported by 51% of Democrats, 47% of Independents, and 43% of Republicans. Tax increases, with only 29% support, was the least popular option among Kentuckians.
In the wake of recent teacher protests, we also asked if these demonstrations, and accompanying school closings, made respondents more likely to support, less likely to support, or had no impact on support for pension reform. The protests appear to have had the desired effect, as 36% indicated it made them less likely to support pension reform. 32% indicated that these actions had no impact, and 18% indicated it made them more likely to support pension reform. These protests also had a positive impact across all partisan and ideological groups, as they made conservatives (30%), moderates (37%), and liberals (48%) all less likely to support pension reform.
During the midst of the survey, the Governor made his controversial remarks regarding children in Kentucky being sexually assaulted or otherwise harmed due to being left at home unattended as a result of the teacher protest and corresponding school cancellations. Although the sample is not large enough to make broad claims regarding the impact of this, we do have enough pre- and post-comment data to take a look at the general impact of these remarks.
Roughly a quarter of the sample was contacted after Bevin’s remarks. What we see is roughly a 7 point decline as his approval before the remarks was 34%, while his approval after the remarks was 27%. His disapproval rose from 55% before his remarks to 60% after his remarks. Although we do not have enough respondents pre- and post-remarks to perform more nuanced analysis, it does appear that they did indeed negatively impact his approval.
GUN POLICY
We asked a variety of questions regarding gun policy in the wake of high profile school shootings that have occurred in the U.S. First, we asked respondents if they favored having an armed resource officer at all public schools. This proposal received overwhelming support from Kentuckians (70%). Support for this was bipartisan, as it was supported by 78% of Republicans, 72% of Independents, and 63% of Democrats, and crossed ideological lines, as it was supported by a majority of moderates, liberals, and conservatives. Additionally, 63% of those in favor of this also supported a tax increase in order to pay for it. Again, in each instance a majority of Republicans, Democrats, and Independents demonstrated support for this proposal.
Finally, 70% of respondents favored raising the minimum age to purchase an AR-15 from 18 to 21. This policy was supported by 79% of Democrats, 73% of Independents, and 64% of Republicans. This proposal also received 82% support from liberals, 79% support from moderates, and 62% from conservatives.
ABOUT THE WKU SSRC
The WKU Social Science Research, established in October 2012 as part of a coordinated effort involving the Departments of Political Science, Sociology, and Public Health, is a computer assisted survey lab with the capacity to conduct surveys via telephone, mail, online, and through the use of in-person interviews. For the latest news on what is happening at the WKU SSRC like us on Facebook (facebook.com/WKUSSRC) or follow us on Twitter (@WKUSSRC).
DONALD TRUMP
|
Gender
|
Party Id
|
Ideology
|
Income
|
|||||||||
|
All
|
Men
|
Women
|
Rep
|
Dem
|
Ind
|
Con
|
Mod
|
Lib
|
<50
|
50<100
|
100+
|
|
|
Approve
|
45
|
52
|
43
|
73
|
22
|
33
|
65
|
42
|
16
|
49
|
44
|
48
|
|
Disapprove
|
45
|
39
|
46
|
17
|
76
|
48
|
26
|
42
|
82
|
42
|
44
|
45
|
|
Not sure/refused
|
10
|
9
|
11
|
10
|
2
|
19
|
19
|
18
|
2
|
10
|
12
|
8
|
|
Age
|
Race
|
Education
|
|||||||
|
18-34
|
35-49
|
50-64
|
65+
|
White
|
Non-White
|
HS or less
|
College
|
Adv. Degree
|
|
|
Approve
|
40
|
30
|
33
|
54
|
75
|
41
|
44
|
50
|
35
|
|
Disapprove
|
32
|
40
|
38
|
30
|
10
|
38
|
41
|
41
|
62
|
|
Not sure/refused
|
28
|
40
|
19
|
16
|
15
|
10
|
15
|
19
|
3
|
|
Gender
|
Party Id
|
Ideology
|
Income
|
|||||||||
|
All
|
Men
|
Women
|
Rep
|
Dem
|
Ind
|
Con
|
Mod
|
Lib
|
<50
|
50<100
|
100+
|
|
|
Approve
|
32
|
41
|
29
|
45
|
18
|
32
|
47
|
25
|
20
|
34
|
24
|
40
|
|
Disapprove
|
56
|
54
|
57
|
43
|
76
|
51
|
41
|
62
|
72
|
55
|
60
|
52
|
|
Not sure/refused
|
12
|
5
|
13
|
12
|
6
|
17
|
12
|
13
|
8
|
11
|
16
|
8
|
|
Age
|
Race
|
Education
|
|||||||
|
18-34
|
35-49
|
50-64
|
65+
|
White
|
Non-White
|
HS or less
|
College
|
Adv. Degree
|
|
|
Approve
|
30
|
30
|
33
|
37
|
32
|
32
|
36
|
31
|
32
|
|
Disapprove
|
55
|
56
|
55
|
61
|
56
|
59
|
55
|
55
|
56
|
|
Not sure/refused
|
15
|
14
|
12
|
2
|
12
|
9
|
9
|
14
|
12
|
|
Gender
|
Party Id
|
Ideology
|
Income
|
|||||||||
|
All
|
Men
|
Women
|
Rep
|
Dem
|
Ind
|
Con
|
Mod
|
Lib
|
<50
|
50<100
|
100+
|
|
|
Approve
|
25
|
21
|
24
|
31
|
20
|
23
|
26
|
26
|
19
|
26
|
22
|
25
|
|
Disapprove
|
58
|
57
|
57
|
50
|
65
|
61
|
57
|
54
|
70
|
52
|
73
|
58
|
|
Not sure/refused
|
17
|
12
|
19
|
19
|
15
|
16
|
17
|
20
|
11
|
22
|
5
|
17
|
|
Age
|
Race
|
Education
|
|||||||
|
AD
|
18-34
|
35-49
|
50-64
|
65+
|
White
|
Non-White
|
HS or less
|
College
|
Adv. Degree
|
|
Approve
|
31
|
27
|
20
|
16
|
24
|
28
|
26
|
25
|
20
|
|
Disapprove
|
58
|
55
|
59
|
64
|
58
|
57
|
54
|
58
|
69
|
|
Not sure/refused
|
11
|
18
|
21
|
20
|
18
|
15
|
20
|
17
|
11
|
|
Gender
|
Party Id
|
Ideology
|
Income
|
|||||||||
|
All
|
Men
|
Women
|
Rep
|
Dem
|
Ind
|
Con
|
Mod
|
Lib
|
<50
|
50<100
|
100+
|
|
|
Approve
|
30
|
31
|
30
|
37
|
21
|
30
|
28
|
35
|
21
|
32
|
28
|
27
|
|
Disapprove
|
56
|
61
|
54
|
47
|
67
|
56
|
60
|
47
|
68
|
53
|
60
|
62
|
|
Not sure/refused
|
14
|
8
|
16
|
16
|
12
|
14
|
12
|
18
|
11
|
15
|
12
|
11
|
|
Age
|
Race
|
Education
|
|||||||
|
18-34
|
35-49
|
50-64
|
65+
|
White
|
Non-White
|
HS or less
|
College
|
Adv. Degree
|
|
|
Approve
|
45
|
28
|
23
|
14
|
30
|
31
|
34
|
28
|
26
|
|
Disapprove
|
45
|
58
|
63
|
64
|
58
|
43
|
56
|
55
|
65
|
|
Not sure/refused
|
10
|
14
|
14
|
22
|
12
|
26
|
10
|
17
|
9
|
|
Gender
|
Party Id
|
Ideology
|
Income
|
|||||||||
|
All
|
Men
|
Women
|
Rep
|
Dem
|
Ind
|
Con
|
Mod
|
Lib
|
<50
|
50<100
|
100+
|
|
|
Approve
|
45
|
51
|
43
|
60
|
23
|
55
|
60
|
43
|
24
|
46
|
36
|
45
|
|
Disapprove
|
42
|
43
|
42
|
28
|
61
|
38
|
31
|
38
|
65
|
40
|
52
|
43
|
|
Not sure/refused
|
13
|
6
|
15
|
12
|
14
|
8
|
9
|
19
|
11
|
14
|
12
|
12
|
|
Age
|
Race
|
Education
|
|||||||
|
18-34
|
35-49
|
50-64
|
65+
|
White
|
Non-White
|
HS or less
|
College
|
Adv. Degree
|
|
|
Approve
|
43
|
52
|
38
|
44
|
46
|
39
|
39
|
50
|
44
|
|
Disapprove
|
42
|
37
|
47
|
50
|
41
|
53
|
48
|
38
|
47
|
|
Not sure/refused
|
15
|
11
|
15
|
6
|
13
|
8
|
13
|
12
|
9
|
Regardless of how you voted in the last election, do you consider yourself to be a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?
Democrat 36%
Not Sure 4%
IDEOLOGY
On a scale of one to ten where one represents very liberal and ten represents very conservative where would you place yourself? ***(1-4 classified as liberal, 5-6 as moderate, and 7-10 as conservative)***
Liberal 24%
Refused 4%
What is your sex?
Male 46%
Female 54%
EDUCATION
What is the highest level of formal education you completed?
Less Than High School 2%
Post-Graduate Degree 12%
RACE
Would you describe your race as White, African-American, Hispanic, Native American, Asian American, Biracial, or something else? ***(collapsed into white/non-white categories)***
White 88%
Non-white 12%
AGE
What is your age?
18-34 26%
65+ 18%
INCOME
Which of the following categories best describes your total household yearly income? Less than 25,000, 25,000 to less than 50,000, 50,000 to less than 75,000, 75,000 to less than 100,000, or 100,000 or more? ***(collapsed into less than 50,000, 50,000 to 100,000, and more than 100,000)***
Less than 50,000 46%
Refused 9%
PENSION 1
Governor Bevin and a large number of teachers have been in disagreement over how to reform the pension for Kentucky teachers. Are you generally more supportive of the Governors position, the teachers’ position, or are you generally neutral in the in the political debate over pension reform.
Governor 16%
Not sure/refused 11%
|
Party Id
|
Ideology
|
|||||
|
Rep
|
Dem
|
Ind
|
Con
|
Mod
|
Lib
|
|
|
Governor
|
28
|
6
|
10
|
30
|
9
|
7
|
|
Teachers
|
38
|
71
|
50
|
36
|
63
|
75
|
|
Neutral
|
24
|
13
|
28
|
26
|
19
|
12
|
|
Not sure/refused
|
8
|
10
|
13
|
8
|
9
|
6
|
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Governor Bevin has handled the pension crisis?
Approve 29%
Not sure/Refused 9%
|
Party Id
|
Ideology
|
|||||
|
Rep
|
Dem
|
Ind
|
Con
|
Mod
|
Lib
|
|
|
Approve
|
41
|
16
|
32
|
43
|
24
|
18
|
|
Disapprove
|
48
|
78
|
60
|
48
|
66
|
78
|
|
Not sure/refused
|
11
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
10
|
5
|
Several school districts across Kentucky closed over the past couple of weeks to allow teacher to go to Frankfort to protest pension reform legislation. Did these actions make you more likely to support, less likely to support, or have no impact on your support of proposed pension reform?
More likely 18%
Not sure/Refused 14%
|
Party Id
|
Ideology
|
|||||
|
Rep
|
Dem
|
Ind
|
Con
|
Mod
|
Lib
|
|
|
More likely
|
23
|
18
|
16
|
22
|
18
|
17
|
|
Less likely
|
36
|
44
|
27
|
30
|
37
|
48
|
|
No impact
|
23
|
27
|
43
|
44
|
33
|
16
|
|
Not sure/refused
|
18
|
12
|
14
|
4
|
1
|
0
|
Do you support or oppose the following proposals as ways to help the state government fund the state’s pension obligations?
Tax increases
Not sure/Refused 22%
Marijuana Legalization
Not sure/Refused 15%
Casino Gambling
Not sure/Refused 22%
ARMED RESOURCE OFFICER
Do you think the state of Kentucky should, or should not, allocate state money each year to pay the salary and other related expenses to put a full-time armed, trained law enforcement officer — known as a school resource officer — in every public school in the state?
Should 70%
Not sure/Refused 15%
ARMED RESOURCE OFFICER FOLLOW UP
Would you support an increase in taxes to support putting a school resource officer in every Kentucky public school? ***(asked to those who answered should to previous question)***
Yes 63%
Not sure/Refused 17%
AR-15 AGE LIMIT
Do you think Kentucky should, or should not, pass a law raising the minimum age for purchasing a semi-automatic weapon, such as the AR-15, from 18-21 years old?
Should 70%
Not sure/Refused 7%
BIGGEST PROBLEM
What do you believe is the biggest problem facing Kentucky? ***(open ended)***
Pension crisis 19%
