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Kentucky's new daily cases, seven-day rolling average show uptick in coronavirus in July

Posted at 6:35 PM, Jul 22, 2020

FRANKFORT, Ky. (LEX 18) — Gov. Andy Beshear warns that Kentucky’s new coronavirus cases should be a wake-up call.

On Sunday, after reporting almost 1,000 new coronavirus cases - which is the state’s highest number of daily positive cases - Beshear said Kentucky is facing a significant uptick in cases.

“The virus is spreading out there. It’s spreading significantly," Gov. Beshear said. "We must make sure that we take the steps to keep ourselves safe, our families safe, and each other safe. Any concept that there’s just more testing out there and the virus is still in the same place is absolutely and categorically false."

Gov. Beshear said the daily number of positive cases and the rolling seven-day average proves that Kentucky’s positivity rate is on the rise.

As of July 21, Kentucky has had ten days in July of more than 400 new daily coronavirus cases. These are numbers the state did not see in previous months.

The only other day with such a high number is May 5. That’s when the state reported 577 new daily positive cases. However, that number was inflated by the results from the Green River Correctional Complex after everyone in the prison was tested during an outbreak.

Kentucky’s Public Health Commissioner, Dr. Steven Stack, said the rate of Kentucky’s current growth might be difficult for some people to understand.

“People aren’t used to exponential growth. Sunday was our highest total by far. When you start this climb, it’s like going up Mount Everest. But we know we can control this, we’ve proven that. We know that the things we’ve recommended work,” said Dr. Stack. “Sunday was a wake-up call. Sunday was a warning. It’s a shot across the bow. Our fate is collectively in Team Kentucky’s hands, whether we can adopt a simple measure like wearing a mask. If we don’t take some strong action, people will see how bad things can get in Kentucky, and believe me, we don’t want to get there.”

As of July 21, Kentucky’s rolling seven-day average of new cases is 548.

The rolling seven-day average gives us a more realistic look at what’s happening with the virus because the data averages each day’s cases over the past week. That helps smooth out uneven reporting, like positive reports from Sundays and Mondays, which tend to be lower due to fewer labs reporting their numbers on the weekend.

In March, the rolling seven-day average never went higher than 61 cases. In April, the highest seven-day rolling average was 180 cases on the 24th of the month. In May, the highest seven-day rolling average was 207 cases on the 5 and 10 of the month. In June, it maxed out at 226 cases on the 6th.

As of July 21st, the lowest seven-day rolling average in the month of July was 209 cases on the 2nd and 4th of the month. In the last ten days, the average has remained between 355 and 548 cases. The average is also trending upwards.