NewsDecision 2019


With Election Day coming up, who is leading the polls?

Posted at 3:07 PM, Oct 25, 2019
and last updated 2019-10-25 18:55:36-04

(LEX 18) — With Election Day just eleven days away, who is leading the polls? Is Gov. Matt Bevin up? Or, is Democratic challenger Andy Beshear winning?

That answer depends on which poll you're looking at and experts warn there's not much public polling happening in Kentucky.

"In terms of public polling, there's been very little and we just have some uncertainty about what exactly we can expect come Election Day," said Political Science Professor Dr. Michael Zilis.

Experts say both campaigns are polling internally, but those numbers aren't public. As far as public polls go, experts say there's the 'Mason-Dixon Kentucky Poll' and the 'PollSmart MR Kentucky Poll.'

The 'Mason-Dixon Kentucky Poll,' which was released October 16, shows Bevin and Beshear tied at 46%. The poll also says Bevin moved up in numbers. At the beginning of the year, the poll had Beshear at 48% and Bevin at 40%. It now has them both at 46%, which implies Bevin went up and Beshear went down.

Then, the 'PollSmark MR Kentucky Poll,' which was released October 23rd, paints a completely different picture. It says Beshear is way up. Among registered voters, the poll shows Beshear with an 18 point lead - 50% for Beshear, 32% for Bevin. Among likely voters, the lead grows to 21 points, with the poll showing 54% for Beshear and 33% for Bevin.

So with the results being so different, what does this mean? Experts say it's clear no single poll is an accurate representation of Kentucky's race for governor.

"It's probably a good idea for everyone, in the cabinets themselves and voters sitting there trying to make sense of what's going on, not to put too much stock in any single piece of information," said Dr. Zilis.

The margin or error for the Mason Dixon poll is listed at 4 points. For PollSmart MR, the margin of error is listed at 4.2 points.