Conventions may at times seem like it's all about the confetti and speeches, but what Joe Biden and Kamala Harris want more than anything after this Democratic Convention is what's known as a "post-convention bounce."
The phrase describes an increase in support in the polls immediately following a convention
HISTORIC BOUNCES
Since 1968, presidential campaigns have, on average, received a 5 percent increase in the polls following their conventions.
Since 2004, convention bounces have been getting smaller, with the average being around 2 percent.
WHY BIDEN MIGHT NOT GET A BIG BOUNCE
"People have had a bit more time to evaluate the candidates already (and) maybe opinions are a little more locked," Professor Thomas Holbrook of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee said, commenting on the fact bounces have been tougher and tougher to get.
Apart from recent history working against the Biden campaign, television ratings are down compared to four years ago.
"There could be fewer persuadable voters," Holbrook added.
There is also the fact President Donald Trump has his convention next week.
WHAT THE CAMPAIGNS THINK
Biden advisers aren't as concerned with the lower television ratings, saying more Americans are live streaming the convention on their laptops and cellphones than ever before.
NEWS: 28.9 million Americans tuned in to @DemConvention last night across TV & digital platforms, up from 2016 & shattering the previous record for digital streams, which totaled 10.2m even as numbers still come in.
We are producing a digital convention, and people are watching.
— TJ Ducklo (@TDucklo) August 18, 2020
"We’ve really thought about how we can reach people on non-traditional platforms and really make this a dynamic convention," Kate Bedingfield, a top adviser for Biden, said.
President Trump's campaign is also predicting a spike for Biden, despite the lower ratings. Trump aide Hogan Gidley predicted an 8-10 point increase because of the media's coverage.
Interesting Trump campaign spokesman @JHoganGidley
tells me they expect Biden to get an 8-10 point bump following the Democratic Convention. I haven't heard anyone talk about a bump that big...this maybe an attempt by the campaign to set expectations too high for Biden to meet pic.twitter.com/wmKUmufFkA— Joe St. George (@JoeStGeorge) August 20, 2020
