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Will Joe Biden get a post-convention bounce?

Convention bounces have been shrinking since 2004
Will Joe Biden get a post-convention bounce?
Posted at 12:41 AM, Aug 21, 2020
and last updated 2020-08-21 00:43:02-04

Conventions may at times seem like it's all about the confetti and speeches, but what Joe Biden and Kamala Harris want more than anything after this Democratic Convention is what's known as a "post-convention bounce."

The phrase describes an increase in support in the polls immediately following a convention

HISTORIC BOUNCES

Since 1968, presidential campaigns have, on average, received a 5 percent increase in the polls following their conventions.

Since 2004, convention bounces have been getting smaller, with the average being around 2 percent.

WHY BIDEN MIGHT NOT GET A BIG BOUNCE

"People have had a bit more time to evaluate the candidates already (and) maybe opinions are a little more locked," Professor Thomas Holbrook of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee said, commenting on the fact bounces have been tougher and tougher to get.

Apart from recent history working against the Biden campaign, television ratings are down compared to four years ago.

"There could be fewer persuadable voters," Holbrook added.

There is also the fact President Donald Trump has his convention next week.

WHAT THE CAMPAIGNS THINK

Biden advisers aren't as concerned with the lower television ratings, saying more Americans are live streaming the convention on their laptops and cellphones than ever before.

"We’ve really thought about how we can reach people on non-traditional platforms and really make this a dynamic convention," Kate Bedingfield, a top adviser for Biden, said.

President Trump's campaign is also predicting a spike for Biden, despite the lower ratings. Trump aide Hogan Gidley predicted an 8-10 point increase because of the media's coverage.