Harvard model says 10 states should implement coronavirus lockdowns

Posted at 11:32 PM, Aug 06, 2020

Last month, the Harvard Global Health Institute released an interactive map that shows the risk of contracting the coronavirus based on daily new cases per 100,000 people. At the time, three states were in the red. As of Thursday, that number has since increased to 10.

According to Harvard, the 10 states represent ones that should consider full stay-at-home orders, while an additional 22 should consider them.

The map has four colors – green, yellow, orange and red – to demonstrate the risk by county and state. The map shows 10 states – Louisiana, Arizona, Florida, Mississippi, Nevada, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas and South Carolina – in the red for where infections are high.

Just one state – Vermont—is in the green.

According to Harvard Global Health Institute, when areas are shaded red, stay-at-home orders become necessary.

On Thursday, the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation concurred that a number of states should consider stay-at-home orders. The organization’s director Dr. Christopher Murray said that states should consider closing non-essential businesses when the daily death rate reaches eight per 1 million people. The IHME said that four states - Arizona, Florida, Mississippi, South Carolina – are in that category.

Twenty-two states are in the orange, meaning those states should consider either implementing stay-at-home orders or conduct rigorous tracing programs, Harvard said.

“Local leaders need and deserve a unified approach for suppressing COVID-19, with common metrics so that they can begin to anticipate and get ahead of the virus, rather than reacting to uncontrolled community spread”, says Beth Cameron, Vice President for Global Biological Policy and Programs at the Nuclear Threat Initiative and a member of the team. “Unless and until there is a whole of government response, with measurable progress communicated similarly and regularly across every state and locality, U.S. leaders will be left to react to the chaos of the virus - rather than being able to more effectively target interventions to suppress it. “


- Less than one case per 100,000 people

- On track for containment

- Monitor with viral testing and contact tracing program


- 1-9 cases per 100,000 people

- Community spread

- Rigorous test and trace programs advised


- 10-24 cases per 100,000 people

- Accelerated spread

- Stay-at-home orders and/or rigorous test and trace programs advised


- 25 or more cases per 100,000 people

- Tipping point

- Stay-at-home orders necessary

Click here to view the map.