(LEX 18) — It’s too early to judge the accuracy of polls released by candidates running to be the Republican nominee for Kentucky governor in 2023, according to LEX 18 Political Analyst Bob Babbage.
“It’s just too soon,” Babbage said. “Too much will happen in current events, too much will happen in the legislature, too much will happen in the campaigns themselves for us to determine anything conclusive right now.”
A recent poll commissioned by Daniel Cameron’s campaign shows him with a 31-point lead. It asked who the campaign said is a cross-section of 500 Kentucky Republicans who they would vote for if the election was held today.
Results showed 39% picked Cameron, 8% chose Kelly Craft, and another 8% chose Ryan Quarles. Other candidates polled at 2 percent or less. 38% were undecided in the survey Cameron’s campaign, which was conducted by national polling firm Meeting Street Research.
“What Cameron’s poll shows is he’s well known and that’s certainly favorable,” Babbage said. “It does not confirm who is voting for which candidate.”
Their campaign’s job now is to convert “knowing my name” to “voting for me,” Babbage said.
Eric Deters, who polled at 2% in Cameron’s poll, called that poll “mush.” His campaign, with help from a “pollster friend” conducted their survey asking 1000 Kentucky Republicans. The release Deters posted to his Twitter doesn't specifically say the question his team and the pollster asked. The results showed a significantly closer race.
Brandon Moody, a General Consultant with Cameron’s campaign, did not dispute that this is early and a lot can change as the primary nears. They do believe Cameron is far and away the frontrunner in the race. Despite the apparent advantage, he said they still plan to run an aggressive campaign.
Campaigns release polls to help build support for their candidate, Babbage said, adding you’ll never see a campaign release a poll they commissioned showing their candidate down by a significant margin.
“This race is going to be a tough race,” Babbage said. “To say that any Republican has it in the bag is something that cannot be supported or documented, it’s just not provable at this moment.”
The same goes for Governor Andy Beshear because in many ways Kentucky is a red state, Babbage said. At the same time you can’t say Beshear isn’t popular as shown by polls listing his approval rating at 60%.