You don't necessarily need to see the numbers. All you need to do is to look at your yard to know it has been really dry as of late. The year began in the same fashion as last year - wet. Over the past six to eight weeks the pattern has changed. The precipitation surplus is shrinking. In the most recent drought monitor issued last Thursday, the Louisville metro was placed in the abnormally dry category. The rest of central Kentucky and into eastern counties are still fine. But if your brown, crunchy yard is any indicator, we could use some rain.
We are eleven days in and rain still hasn't found the official rain gauge in Lexington this month. That will change come Tuesday.
Through mid-week a low will cut across the Ohio Valley. Our storm chances will begin to increase late Monday night into Tuesday morning. The best opportunity will come Tuesday afternoon and evening as the cold front pushes south. This boundary plus the hot and muggy conditions out ahead of it, and the strong low-level westerlies rushing through the area will create an environment capable of producing strong or severe thunderstorms.
The Storm Prediction Center has already put out a slight risk for severe storms on Tuesday. Central Kentucky is on the far western edge of the highlighted area. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat. Storms are expected to weaken into the evening hours.
Any rain will do. For some it may only be a little bit. Potential rainfall amounts range from a half inch to over an inch. Part of that range comes down to where will the thunderstorms develop and which areas will they move through. While some areas get drenched, others may stay bone dry. If you don't see rain on Tuesday, it may be some time before the next round arrives.