Tropics Update - September 14th

Humberto follows similar path to Dorian
Posted at 8:34 AM, Sep 14, 2019
and last updated 2019-09-14 08:34:03-04

We’re a few days past the climatological “peak” of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and the tropics are following suit. Warm waters, low shear, and steering currents continue to develop and move storms closer to North America.

As of now, there are four waves and one tropical storm being watched. Immediate land impacts are the northern Bahamas and the Gulf Coast of Texas. As of now, the low sitting in the Gulf of Mexico has a 30% (low) chance of becoming tropical and will likely fizzle out in the Western Gulf.

Humberto is the biggest impact to life and property as of now. Humberto is a Tropical Storm and remains just off the eastern coastline of Abaco Island, still recovering from Dorian. It is a low-end tropical storm with sustained winds of 40 mph and gusts occasionally reaching 50 mph. Storm movement is northwest at 7 mph.

Latest model trends continue to push Humberto in a similar path to Dorian, allowing it to pass closely to the Florida and Georgia coastlines before making a sharp right turn and heading back out into the Atlantic. The main difference will be strength, as Humberto will struggle to reach hurricane status.

As the storm makes its deep-water turn, the sustained winds should be reaching low-end CAT 1 status around early Monday morning. The storm is expected to make a close approach to Bermuda early Thursday morning as a Category 1 hurricane.

Even with the strongest winds yet to flow from Humberto, tropical storm force winds are expected for portions of Grand Bahama for Saturday. Abaco and Grand Bahama were the two islands most affected by Dorian’s wrath, and will have more wind and rain to deal with as Humberto passes, but fails to make a landfall.

Winds are expected to stay below tropical storm force for much of the US coastline, but winds may pick up to near that strength for the Coastal Carolinas, especially if the storm hugs the coastline a bit more.

Rain is expected to be a non-issue for the US coastline with only a couple of inches expected between Florida and Georgia. High amounts could negatively affect Bermuda at the end of the week.