Flare ups are on the MaxTrack this afternoon thanks to the heating of the day and the moisture in place. Temperatures have reached the low to middle 80s for those who have stayed rain free. Dew point temperatures remain high, and therefore, several of our heat index values have reached into the 90s.
Once we crossed into noon it did not take long for isolated showers to pop-up on the MaxTrack. All have been lightning free in the early afternoon, but as the heating continues through the early evening that will change. Showers will become thunderstorms, dropping heavy rain, and bringing a few strong wind gusts. Most storms are expected to remain sub-severe this afternoon as the instability levels are less than yesterday. That being said, a few of these may reach severe limits for damaging wind gusts. As per usual, whatever does develop will fizzle out overnight as we lose heating. Showers will not completely leave however, as the overnight and mid-morning is when what’s left of Elsa will be close to Kentucky. A few widespread showers and thunderstorms are possible in the eastern half of the state as the storm passes us by. The center of Elsa will not come close to Kentucky, in fact, the center of circulation track has it passing us 400 miles to the east. However, we will still get some of the bleed off showers through the morning tomorrow.
The cold front that is keeping Elsa away from us will slide in late Thursday. Showers and storms will be more numerous through the afternoon and evening tomorrow as the front closes in. Expect scattered rain showers and storms to continue into Friday morning, clearing as the front moves along. The rest of Friday should be pretty nice and rain free, before the next wave arrives for the weekend.