Although for many of us we haven't seen rain since last Saturday, the rainfall we saw 4th of July week did help ease our overall drought situation. The weekly US Drought Monitor, which came out today, but was computed last Monday, shows our overall numbers did get better with many of us moving back a category from last week. Last week most of us were in the moderate category (stage 2) and have moved back to stage 1, abnormally dry (stage 1) with the exception of around Valley View and west of US 127. Those that were in stage 1 last week, mainly east of Lexington have seen their drought status eased overall.
While it's a reason to be happy and hopeful, we're far from out of the drought woods yet. Even after the plentiful rains of July 4th week, many of us are still running a significant percentage behind normal for the last 30 days. This week for many of us has been dry, so it won't take too long for the drought conditions to worsen again. Rainfall chances are small through Saturday. We do have decent rain chances Sunday and Monday.
Those rains will be important. As of now, the European forecast model is putting down 3/4 to 1.5" of rain. If that comes to pass, that can help to keep the drought numbers from worsening. However, aside from last weekend's rain, rain systems have greatly underperformed over the last couple of months which led to the drought conditions in the first place.
If the rains do underperfom again, another factor to consider will be the building heat next week. The more rain we get, the more the added moisture can blunt what looks to be a pretty impressive heat surge. If we do end up with not much rain, go ahead and add a few more degrees to the forecasted highs.
