Meteorologist Bill Meck is live on Facebook providing up-to-date weather coverage as storms and flash flooding is expected to hit the region.
Quiet Start Gives Way to a More Active Afternoon
We started Tuesday with a few isolated light showers overnight and into the early morning hours, but overall most of Central and Eastern Kentucky began the day on a relatively quiet note.
A few storms have already clipped portions of northeastern Kentucky this morning, bringing pockets of heavy rainfall, frequent lightning and gusty winds. Those storms have generally remained below severe limits as they move through, but this is only the beginning of what could become a much more active afternoon and evening.
As we move through the rest of the day, additional clusters of thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeast toward the Ohio Valley.
Severe storm risk increases this evening
The highest severe-weather threat is across northern portions of the viewing area and the Bluegrass, where a Level 3 out of 5 Enhanced Risk is in place.
Farther south, the severe threat gradually decreases, but strong storms will still be possible across much of Central Kentucky.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the Bluegrass and Northern Kentucky through 8 PM EDT this evening for the chance of seeing strong to severe thunderstorms.
Damaging straight-line winds will be the primary concern with any organized cluster of storms that develops. Some of the stronger storms could produce wind gusts greater than 75 mph, which would be capable of bringing down large tree limbs, snapping trees and causing power outages.
Frequent lightning and torrential rainfall will also accompany the stronger storms. While damaging winds remain the main concern, the tornado threat is not completely zero.
There is a low chance for a brief spin-up tornado within any stronger bowing line of thunderstorms, particularly where sections of the line develop small areas of rotation.
Flash flooding could become a major concern
Heavy rainfall may become just as important of a threat as the damaging winds.
There is a tremendous amount of moisture available in the atmosphere, and multiple rounds of thunderstorms could move across some of the same locations tonight and again Wednesday.
The greatest concern for excessive rainfall is currently across northeastern portions of the viewing area, including the northern Bluegrass and areas extending into southern Ohio.
A Areal Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the Bluegrass and all of Eastern Kentucky through Wednesday morning due to the concern of flash flooding.
If storms repeatedly move over the same communities, rainfall totals could quickly add up. Many locations could receive 1 to 3 inches of rain over the next several days, while isolated locations underneath repeated thunderstorms could pick up 3 to 4 inches or more in a much shorter amount of time.
Localized flash flooding could develop quickly, especially in low-lying areas, poor-drainage locations and communities that receive multiple rounds of torrential rainfall.
If you encounter a flooded roadway, remember to turn around and find another route.
Storms could continue overnight
Even after the first line or cluster of storms moves through this evening, the rain threat may not be finished.
Leftover boundaries from earlier storms could become a focus for additional thunderstorm development overnight. If storms repeatedly track along those boundaries, heavy rainfall could continue into early Wednesday morning.
That means some communities could wake up Wednesday to ongoing showers and thunderstorms, along with localized flooding issues.
Another round of storms possible Wednesday
The active pattern sticks around Wednesday.
Showers and thunderstorms could already be ongoing during the morning before another round becomes possible later Wednesday afternoon and evening.
A new disturbance moving through the Ohio Valley will provide additional support for storms, and if we see enough breaks in the clouds to allow the atmosphere to destabilize, another round of strong to severe thunderstorms could develop.
Damaging winds and torrential rainfall will once again be the main threats.
A Level 2 out of 5 Slight Risk for severe weather is already in place Wednesday across areas west of Interstate 65, although the exact placement of the strongest storms will depend on how tonight's activity unfolds.
Unsettled pattern continues through Friday
Additional shower and thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast Thursday and Friday as Kentucky stays near the edge of a strong ridge of high pressure.
That position can allow clusters of thunderstorms to repeatedly move southeast into the Ohio Valley, keeping us in an active pattern through the end of the workweek.
Not everyone will see storms every day, but any round that develops could bring heavy rainfall, frequent lightning and gusty winds.
Temperatures should generally back off into the low to mid-80s in areas that see more clouds and rainfall, although locations that stay dry for longer periods could still become quite warm and humid.
